I’ve heard it said that attention is our most valuable commodity – and it’s true. Everything is competing for it these days: social media, click-bait articles, constant notifications. As Christmas approaches, our attention is stretched even more, and it’s often the time when we take our eyes off the markets.

A bit of downtime is essential, and as W.D. Gann taught, traders should spend a few months each year out of the market. However, it’s also worth remembering the December seasonal date can present some strong trading opportunities.

Cast your eyes back to the 23 December 2024 low on the SPI200 as we saw the seasonal date combine with a 50% retracement.

Chart 1

Could we see a similar opportunity on the SPI in reverse as we approach the 2025 December seasonal date? Instead of a low on 50%, could we see a high on 50%?

If we look at the weekly swing chart, we’ve seen a big weekly Overbalance in Price. Adding a Ranges Resistance Card, a 50% retracement gives 8769. A seasonal date and 50% retracement is a great starting point to watch for a Classic Gann Setup to come together. 

Chart 2

I’m only interested in this setup if several key elements come together, but I can already begin building the analysis to define my price and time window for a potential trade. A quick reminder: the December contract expires on 18 December, so if we’re looking to trade the seasonal date, we also need to analyse the March 2026 contract.

A few of my favourite tools for the SPI are Time by Degrees, Gann Angles from weekly turning points, Speed Angles, and Sections of the Market. For this to become a true ‘cracker setup’, I’d like to see the market complete three sections into the 50% retracement. I also want to see price fall below the 1×1 Gann Angle drawn from the current weekly swing low, then track along the underside of the 1×1 as it moves toward the 50%.

The intersection of the 50% retracement and the 1×1 Gann Angle gives me a key date: 30 December.

Chart 3

The current weekly Overbalance in Price is 36 days down, making a perfect balancing of time, 72 days on 27 December. 72 calendar days is 52 trading days and a time frame that has worked well on the SPI200 previously. That now gives me a window from 27 to 30 December. However 27 December is a Saturday, so I would lean towards December 29 to 30 as a date to watch.

Chart 4

If I consult my Time by Degrees chart, I can see a couple of times when the market is turning, one being around the change of sign close to zero degrees of the month and slightly later around 10-13 degrees.

Chart 5

Taking a look at the Sun times for December, the change of sign or Zero-degree date is Monday, 22 December. Then the 10-13 Degree date would be in early January.

Chart 6

These Time by Degree dates are the red lines on Chart 7 below which now gives me a window of opportunity as I see it for this market to turn. I’ve set my trap so to speak!

Chart 7

I feel like my analysis is done and I’ve identified ‘Where’ I would like to take a trade. Now all is left is to track it and use my ‘Wheels Within Wheels’ and watch for sections of the market to unfold.

That will be the key here. I need to see Sections of the Market and strong signs of completion to consider taking a trade.

It’s not just the price and time coming together, it has to give me the pattern as well. Something like the below scenario would be great! A repeating range into the 50% would be a good sign.

Chart 8

Or the market pushes through around the December Seasonal date then comes back to make a lower top under the 1×1 and 50% retracement.

Chart 9

However, I’m also ready for what I don’t want to see. Three scenarios and a sign that this trade is going to fail or just not come together would be;

1. If the SPI pushes through the 50% and makes higher bottoms
2. Continues in a sideways pattern through the pressure date.
3. Starts to head down from here.

Chart 10

If any of those three scenarios take place, then this trade goes through to the keeper and I watch for the next high-quality opportunity.

I would like to wish everyone all the best for their trading for the rest of 2025 and look forward to all the exciting opportunities that await us in 2026!

Merry Christmas

Gus