The Fourth Time Through
This month let’s explore Gann’s fourth time through rule…
It is often at a triple top or triple bottom that we are presented with a number of opportunities that we can take advantage of. This month’s article will review Gann’s ‘Fourth Time Through’ rule. If we take a moment to reflect on rule 4 from the W.D Gann Master Commodities Course, Gann states:
“Triple bottoms are the strongest and triple tops the strongest, but it is very important to watch an option when it reaches the same level the fourth time as it nearly always goes thru. Therefore, it is safe to reverse positions and pyramid when an option goes thru a triple top or crosses the same price level the fourth time.
Reverse the rule on the down side. Where triple bottoms are made close together, when an option goes to this level the fourth time, it nearly always goes thru. Therefore, when triple bottoms are broken, reverse, sell out all longs and go short, always going with the trend and never against it.”
First things first, Gann comments that it is important to watch “an option”. This can be substituted to any instrument, whether that be a stock, future, or an option, as well as on any market.
It is important to note that the failure of the Triple Top or Bottom allows us to take advantage of what may come with the fourth time through. If you refer to the AMP (ASX) chart below, you will note that the market had not broken the $3.52 level since 2009.
The market attempted to retest the $3.52 level in March 2009 but failed- creating a double bottom opportunity. Again, in 2011 and 2012 the market retested $3.52, yet the level was seen as a key buying opportunity – which further enhanced the strength of the level.
Naturally, if an event happens twice or three times, one would assume it will happen again, and hence the higher the probability for a move to take place. When a market fails to deliver the outcome of both double and triple bottom, it often signals weakness and ultimately will attempt to break the key level. As Gann mentioned, “it is very important to watch an option when it reaches the same level the fourth time as it nearly always goes thru.”
In this case the market was able to break $3.52 in July 2018 – which was 9 years later. What was to come was an accelerated move, and as seen the market dropped from $3.52 to $2.30.
While, it is often easier said than done, there are a few requirements that should be looked out for in order to identify the overall strength, enhancing the probability of the set up. These include:
- Duration between tops or bottoms
- Resistance level (low, ranges, highs)
- Volume on break
- Breakout confirmation
In terms of the duration between the tops or bottoms, what this is referring to is the total time from when the market makes its top or bottom until it retests the level again. This is seen in the AMP example above. It was 9 years since the market had broken $3.52. When thinking about this logically, this is unexplored territory between the bulls and bears for a duration of 9 years.
Another great example of this is Coffee which hadn’t broken the $100 level since 2008, another large duration of 10 years. The power of this has seen coffee move from $100 to $88 in a very short duration (refer to my September 2018 general article title ‘Coffee Break Anyone’).
Key resistance levels or a cluster level is another key strength. If the market is holding above a 50% level or a cluster level – including a multiple of its all-time low or all-time high, this adds to the breakout. Although a resistance level isn’t always the case. It could also be a major psychological level such as $100 that was seen in the coffee example.
Gann often spoke about buying or selling on the breakout when there was high volume. This is often high conviction that the market will continue breaking out. The volume acts as the ‘revs’ of the move making it a key component to watch when the market starts to move away. As you can see in both the AMP and Coffee charts, as the market was breaking the key level – volume started to increase.
Often once the market has broken a key level, watch the re-test to ensure that you haven’t entered into a trade that is a false break. The more analysis lining up the higher the probability and often the more aggressive the move can be. Breakout confirmation is often seen when the market makes three consecutive closes above/below the key level. The re-test will come to confirm the break prior to continuing the move.
AMP initially broke $3.52 and was able to close three consecutive times below this level. The market attempted to get back above the $3.52 level three times, but as you can note in the chart, it fell short each time.
Next time you identify a double or triple bottom/top, make sure you monitor the set up as it could lead to another opportunity. Remember you don’t have to trade every move that happens. You can stalk the set up until it is ripe enough.
It’s Your Perception
Robert Steer