After a great start to 2025 with tariff talk adding volatility to markets, it could be said we have ground to a screaming halt when it comes to trends. This can be a frustrating aspect of trading as I cast my mind back to 2002 on the SPI as being an area that I remember testing my patience to the extreme. If I go back to that time, the lesson learnt was don’t force markets, wait for the trends to develop and be patient. This was working well for me until recently, I had experienced a distinct lack of good opportunities in the markets I follow including our coaching markets.

In last month’s articles I discussed Macquarie Group (MQG.ASX), this is a market I have had an on and off relationship with over the years and after doing some work with that business I decided to dive into some deeper analysis and from a trend’s perspective it did meet my criteria for possible setups.

As I wrote in last month’s article a low around early August could be an area to watch and I write this article as an example of being right in your analysis but not necessarily on the balance sheet. Students should review the articles from last month for context, both in the Safety in the Market newsletter and the Platinum Newsletter.  In short, the price action was at $230, and I was suggesting a retest of $240 could be on the cards. The early July seasonal date held the market up and allowed us to reset for a low in August.

Chart 1 examines the price action using the Lows Resistance Card off the Covid low in 2020. It’s a weekly chart, but note how the multiples of $70.45 and, in particular, the angles around 50% of the A to B range have held up this market.

Chart 1 – Weekly Bar Chart MQG

Chart 2 zooms in and we can see the lows held up by the orange line that is 3 multiples of the Covid low. Interesting to note that the same area was resistance at the highs of 2020 and 2021. Can old tops become new bottoms?

Chart 2 – Weekly Bar Chart MQG

Chart 3 looks at the low that came in on August the 4th and this is where my analysis suggested we could see a turn, more so the 7th in terms of time. I have labelled 3 entry points that would have been options for entries based upon how aggressive the entry profile you wanted to execute.

Chart 3 – Daily Bar Chart MQG

Long the Closers on the 4th of August based on the key reversal pattern was against the trend of the 1-day swing chart and should be seen as highly anticipatory. Placing stops below the low and using a smaller position size could be acceptable risk management options.

Entry on the 6th of August using a Long the Openers after the gap up was again another anticipatory entry with the main trend still down. Using intraday swing charts can assist here if you want to align with intraday trends.

Finally, the entry on the first higher swing bottom on the 11th of August was the most conservative with the main trend still being uncertain so it would not constitute a textbook ABC.

All along we see a retest of resistance at $211.35. The setup and subsequent entries for this scenario are all hard fought from a theoretical basis, there are some aspects that I could hold up to the light and say could I have used them to avoid the trade, the sideways movement has again been frustrating given the last few month, however, in this instance we will have to wait and see how it turns out.

Waiting for trends to develop only to enter and move sideways is a part of trend trading, the best filter is hindsight but that will not always pay the bills so to speak.

Markets have been challenging for consistent trends, but nothing lasts forever.

Good Trading

Aaron Lynch