The great theme of the work of Gann and David, along with all of us who have followed in those footsteps, is that history repeats. This of course is not new in many avenues of thinking and pursuits of greater knowledge. We look to piggyback on the discoveries of those who have come before, and I think the same applies to markets and price data. What has come before allows us to better understand in the future what parameters a market may operate in.

There are a lot of observations we could make about markets currently. I see the same hallmarks across stocks, indexes, commodities, and currencies. There is a degree of uncertainty and perhaps COVID fatigue is setting in more broadly around the globe and most importantly the participants of these markets.

There is a great deal of detachment from the economics and market prices, and this can run much longer than we might otherwise expect or imagine. I heard a recent stat in the S&P 500 the other day, the index looks healthy, but of the 500 companies that make up the index, it’s really being driven by five major companies. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and eBay. They of course are technology-driven and have increased their business over the last 6 months of isolation.  The other interesting element is that those buying these stocks sit more in the retail side of participants rather than institutional. This is a potential recipe for concern, as it reminds me of the buying that lead into the tech wreck of 2000.

Markets drop hints like a trail of breadcrumbs, especially around times to watch. The mantra of time being more important than price is a concept that takes time to accept and see in practice. If we look to the early part of 2020, we see that mid-March was a major low for most risk markets and a top for defensive assets. Since many markets in commodities and currencies (even bitcoin) all showed turns around the March Seasonal time, we would be wise to pay attention around the September Seasonal time.

David was an expert at applying and breaking down Gann’s work around seasonal time. We are seeing the next change of season come into effect on 23rd September GMT time, so this would mean we are on alert leading into and out of that date (Thursday 24th September) in Sydney. As we witnessed a strong change in trend in March (23rd), I’m sure all students of David’s Time by Degrees lesson would agree with me that now is a good time to be watching.

There are a variety of markets I am watching that have overlapping similarities. The S&P 500, the SPI 200, Silver (Gold), Copper and the British Pound.  The Pound is of great interest for me currently given the state of the Brexit progress and the potential for more volatility events to be triggered along the way.

I will leave you with one chart to get you thinking about the importance of time-based analysis. There is a fair bit to take in and I know many of you will be at varying stages of your study, so I have attempted to add something for everyone. I would always caution to say we use our software and analysis to assist with confirming our ideas and assisting with research as opposed to drawing some lines and hoping for inspiration. I also like it when markets are given pressure dates in advance, so we can track the market leading into the potential turn. For example: